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Sunday, March 15, 2009
Book Review: Crash Proof: How To Profit From The Coming Economic Crash by Peter Schiff
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It's tough for these analysts because they can't discuss certain factors without being thought of as lunatics or "conspiracy theorists". Here are some things the power elites have been accused of, which, if true, have provided recent support for the dollar:
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2) Massive long positions in commodities which rapidly reversed (in concert) to become massive short positions, exaggerating price declines
3) Intentional disaster in CDS and other derivatives markets, which (as a side effect) made deleveraging happen so fast that dollars (and yen) became suddenly dear
4) The US Fed buying Treasuries on the sly via Cayman Islands accounts or special arrangements with the Bank of England, thus propping up their value
5) (the obvious one) Lying about the true inflation rate & obfuscating real US money supply growth & real US debts.
None of the above is fit for CNBC except a tepid "the US gov't understates inflation." In my opinion there is evidence (ranging from "a bit" to "damning") for each of these. Perhaps, had we all been free to speculate on such possibilities without being accused of wearing tin-foil hats, we would have been better able to foresee this temporary reprieve in the decline of the dollar.
Even Jefferson suggested conspiracy in his famous "first by inflation, then by deflation" remark.
In my view, the doom-and-gloomers are correct, but they often find it necessary to ignore the possibility of major coordinated intervention or sheer illegal acts which prop up the system and prolong the game. And that can make them precipitous in their forecasts of economic demise.
I'm currently leaning towards the idea that all the governments have (probably inadvertantly on some parts, intentional on others) gotten so entangled that they are all doing their part to keep the US dollar as strong as possible for as long as possible however they can. Just a couple weeks ago Hilary Clinton took a trip to China we're she empahsised this by saying to China - "We're in the same boat." and "We are truly going to rise and fall together." (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-clinton-china23-2009feb23,0,476137.story)
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